Ocean Modeling

Eddy Forecasttm

Our alliance with Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc. (AEF) offers Eddy Watch clients an eddy forecasting capability using the most sophisticated and reliable dynamical model available – Eddy Forecast. We studied existing models in search of a method to produce accurate site-specific forecasts with a resolution sufficient to meet the needs of the offshore operator. The AEF model is the only model to be initialized by the same data used in the daily Eddy Watch analysis from our Far Horizon Drifters.

Eddy Forecast system consists of two components - an initialization component and a prediction component. The initialization component features a revolutionary technology that efficiently unites all real-time observational data used in Eddy Watch to formulate a nowcast or reconstruction of the existing ocean state. Historical knowledge of the current structure in the Loop Current and eddies and fundamental physical principles fill in any gaps in observations. The nowcast created by the initialization component is fed into the prediction component. The prediction component is a computer model that calculates the evolution in time of the initial fields by numerically solving the system of partial differential equations describing the ocean dynamics. Eddy Watch subscribers receive site-specific forecasts of current speed and direction at several depths as an eddy approaches their site.

 
“…we had not anticipated installing the PQ in the middle of a loop current…but weather and currents worked in our favor and we have been able to take advantage of state-of-the-art tropical storm and eddy current forecasting to find a window for our installation.”


US Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE)

In addition to the Eddy Forecast model, data is accessed from the Navy Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) and the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) in order to nowcast and forecast ocean currents. We operate our persistence model which utilizes drifting buoy tracks to characterize anticyclonic eddies and describe their shape, current speeds, rotation rates, and advection. These ocean modeling tools are analyzed in order to arrive at the best forecast of ocean conditions available. Horizon is also a partner in the US Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE).

 
Hess - “You all did a great job in predicting currents and believe me we saved some money planning around your forecast.”